Thursday, August 25, 2016

Tightening the Ankara-Moscow relations. Turkey on the road reconstruction position in the region? –

Repeating the last days of bloody terrorist attacks remind us of the difficult situation in Turkey, which carries out political acrobatics in order to stabilize the internal situation in the country and regain his position of a regional power. The movements made by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan surprise both his neighbors and recent close allies of NATO and the EU.

the world in the twenty-first century, torn by many armed conflicts, fighting terrorism and economic wars. Many of them have their source in the Middle East, where Turkey’s role for centuries was dominant. Today, the region has, for decades being a place of fighting the Arab – Israeli, is divided by an even greater number of wars and guerrilla. Turkey for years was regarded as a stabilizer of Western influence on the situation in the Middle East. The fact that the first post-coup 15 July 2016. foreign visit of President of Turkey was held in Russia has a symbolic dimension. Recep Erdogan’s talks with Vladimir Putin, until recently, seemed impossible after the Turkish air force shot down in November 2015 years bomber army of the Russian Federation over Turkey. Today’s warming relations Russian – Turkish can affect not only the situation in the Middle East region, but also on relations within NATO and the EU and on Russia’s position.

in the heat of conflict

Middle East its strategic importance to world politics owes largely deposits of energy resources – oil oil and natural gas – and rank communication routes, which control determines the position of economic and military policy of the States on a global scale. Persian Gulf (Arab), the Suez Canal, starting from the Black Sea through the Bosporus and the Dardanelles to the Mediterranean Sea, Russia, European countries of the Mediterranean basin, and for the United States strategic merger, representing about possibilities of trade and conducting of potential military operations. Playing the interests of the great actors of world politics reflects on the situation of smaller countries played internally and with each other. By requiring this game further political divisions in the Arab countries and between feuding religious Shiites and Sunnis, the destruction of Christian communities and the emergence of a relatively young political force an Islamic state (ISIS) have a picture of a multitude of problems, which exist countries in the Middle East, including Turkey .

breakthrough coup

Failed attempt at a military coup on the night of 15 on July 16 this year, Erdogan gave the president an excuse to take action against the opposition radyklanych and groups reluctant to build an authoritarian system. The wave of sanctions included not only military putschists, but also the environment is not directly related to military action – the judiciary and education. The scale of repression was unprecedented in recent years, even in countries at war. In Turkey, after the coup repression affected more than 13 thousand. persons detained and arrested, even greater number (60 thousand. people) met the sanctions work. The range of operations against persons associated with antyprezydencką opposition aroused suspicions that initiated the coup could be the President himself, who on the way to a substantial increase in competences to a level almost dictatorial faced opposition leader residing overseas, as well as pro-democracy forces inside the country.

blamed for inciting the attack and its organization residing in exile in the US Fethullah Guelena had to cool down relations between Turkey and the United States. Changing the front against Washington give both countries more flexibility in waging their own, not necessarily always convergent interests in the Middle East.

between the West and Russia

Increase the distance between Turkey and the United States may be temporary because for too long, these two countries cooperated very closely in the framework of NATO policy towards Islamic countries. The cooling of Turkish – American certainly the two countries will want to use to ugrania the largest pool of benefits in the future. In the interest of Turkey, it is the weakening of political forces and the military, which are inflammatory factor within the country. The aim of the United States is a permanent weakening of Russian influence in Syria, Kurdistan and other Muslim countries, which Moscow recently somewhat approached. In the background of these hands are still, of course, an Islamic state, which for years is not able to fight Washington and are surrounded by the same enemy can drive trade in petroleum and import weapons from different parts of the world.

This constant state of tension and conflict is not on hand to Turkey, experienced terrorist attacks, striking at a sensitive and important branch of the economy Ankara – tourism. The fight against the Turkish state run by Kurds and ISIS is not the only problem of Ankara, involved in supporting the opposition trying to overthrow Syrian President Bechar Hafez al-Assad. The latter supports and Russia, engaging militarily in the fight against ISIS and the opposition opposing Assad in Syria. Syrian conflict was indeed a contribution to the downing of the plane of the Russian Air Force over Turkey on November 24 last year. Then the comments pointed to as large exacerbation of tensions between Turkey and Russia, that suggested even possible contraction of the Russian forces or stronger support for the Kurds engaged in military actions in eastern Turkey.

The return of Russian – Turkish after the failed coup against Erdogan testifies to the determination of both countries in the construction of power in the Middle East, according to the political and economic interests of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Turkey. Russia wants to leave the position of Syrian President Bechar Hafez al-Assad and regained its control over the entire territory. This must be done at the expense of the opposition supported by the West and by the liquidation of an Islamic state ISIS, dealing among other things, part of Syria. The price paid by Russia will erode support for the Kurds and threatens peace in eastern Turkey, where Kurdistan Workers’ Party is accused of recent bombings in Elazig and in the province of Van.

Turkish perspective

the course taken by the Turkish president, seeking to reformulate the government in an authoritarian direction, no gain he will crush the West so close to Russia is to be deterrent to the loss (or at least less commitment to NATO), the second largest army of NATO. Erdogan seems to put existing allies in the corner, showing that for achieving its objectives and to master the political opposition and enemies of the military, it is able to communicate even with Russia, which until recently was one of the greatest enemies.

the meeting with Putin on August 9 this year. in St. Petersburg it was dedicated not only political and military issues. The reconstruction of economic co-operation even in the field of energy and the return of Russian tourists to Turkey is economic, difficult to implement in a state of cold war. Russia also expects the project pipeline Turkish Stream and favoring Russian investment in the construction of nuclear power plant in Akkuyu. For losing markets in certain countries of Central Russia, any new source of sales of natural gas is of fundamental importance, and the strengthening of economic ties with the huge Turkish market may be altern atywą to lock on Russian products imposed by the West in view of the situation on Ukraine.

Interestingly, Turkey in talks with Russia do not mind simultaneous interest in and commitment to the Ukrainian market. Independence Erdogan seems to have no limitations other than the restoration and strengthening of the position of Turkey in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Even at the cost of weakening the good relations with the countries of NATO and the EU. The more that the European Union is disappointed with Turkey procrastination important for Ankara’s decision on the possible accession of Turkey to the EU. Further strengthening of relations between Russia and Turkey may lead to plunge the EU and the United States to the role less important players in Asia Minor and the Middle East.

Jan Bereza


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